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WHY CAN'T WE LOVE THEM BOTH
by Dr. and Mrs. J.C. Willke
CHAPTER 32
THE WEST IS DYING
Overpopulation
is largely a hoax
To determine whether a nation is growing or dying, we must examine
three factors: birth rate . . . death rate . . . immigration.
Birth Rate: This is the ultimate determinant. In a
developed nation the average woman must bear 2.1 children (Mean Fertility Rate) in order
to maintain a level population.
In an undeveloped nation the rate must be 2.3 or more because of
higher infant and child mortality.
Death Rate: In recent years fewer people have died
than have been born in most countries because the average age of life expectancy has been
extended. Everyone will die, of course, but for now this has resulted in increases in
population. In recent years fewer people have died
than have been born in most countries because the average age of life expectancy has been
extended. Everyone will die, of course, but for now this has resulted in increases in
population.
Immigration and emigration: Many want to come into the
U.S., Canada and most developed nations. Few want to move to Cuba, Libya or Russia. These
dynamics explain why the total populations of the U.S., Canada and Australia (to pick
three) are still growing, even though their birth rates are below replacement level.
Many want to come into the
U.S., Canada and most developed nations. Few want to move to Cuba, Libya or Russia. These
dynamics explain why the total populations of the U.S., Canada and Australia (to pick
three) are still growing, even though their birth rates are below replacement level.
With a much higher percentage of their people aging, but still
alive, most Western nations have a rapidly aging population. In the U.S. people born in
1970 had a life expectancy of 70 years. In 1993 it was 76 years. By
2050 it will be 82 years. U.S. News & World
Report, Aug. 14, 1995, P. 9.
With heavy immigration to fill the younger age slots, we see a
progressive change in ethnicity, e.g., the U.S. is becoming more Hispanic; Germany,
France, Italy,
Greece and Israel more Muslim. In Italy, the birth rate is 1.2, the
lowest in the world in countries keeping accurate records. In ‘93, there were 5,265
more Italians buried than were born. If this continues unchanged, within 100 years, its
population will shrink from 57 to 15 million, with half of those over 65 years old.
Russia is worse. Accurate statistics are not
available, but by the mid ‘90s, estimates place the birth rate under 1.0 among
non-Muslims and burials exceeding births at over 1 million per year. Italy Birth Rate ..., Boston Globe, July 31, ‘94, p. 13 W.
Montabono, "Italian Baby Boom Goes Bust," Los Angles Times June 24,
‘94, A1 & A6
But notice the change in age groups
There were four in the working years for each one retired. Now look
ahead.
Then there will be only 2.5 in their working years to support each
one retired. The Western world, in the past half-century, has supported its senior and
disabled citizens with tax funds on a scale previously unknown. But, unless there are
enough taxpaying younger workers, there will be no way that such retirement and medical
benefits can continue.
| |
RETIRED |
WORKERS SUPPORTING |
| 1980 |
1 |
3.5 |
| 2000 |
1 |
3.0 |
| 2020 |
1 |
2.5 |
| 2040 |
1 |
1.5-2.0 |
Only one and one-half to two taxpayers to support every retired
person? That’s an impossible situation! What will happen?
Euthanasia! Yes, that will be the answer. Today’s "Every
Child a Wanted Child" will become tomorrow’s "Every Grandparent a Wanted
Grandparent."
The above figures are from the U.S.A. If we were to examine other
developed nations, we would find that, with some variations, all reveal a similar pattern.
But hasn’t there been a new baby boom in the U.S.?
Call it a mini-boom. Many thirtyish women have finally been having
babies before their fertile years are gone. This upped the U.S. birth rate from 1.8 to 2.0
where it leveled.
The continuing increase in U.S. population has been due to (1) older
people not dying yet and (2) a substantial increase in immigration.
Specifically, what of other developed countries?
With almost no exception, every one will face its major demographic
problem of aging in years ahead, e.g., Germany, Austria and Italy have had mean fertility
rates around 1.3. Japan will soon be in trouble. Western Russia is already burying more
than are being born, as in Romania.
And underdeveloped nations?
These all started with very high birth rates. These are dropping
rapidly, e.g., in the 1980s the following drop occurred in mean fertility rates. Tunisia
5.0Ý4.1, India 5.3Ý3.9, South Korea 3.2Ý1.6, Mexico 4.8Ý3.8, Indonesia 4.1Ý3.0,
Brazil 4.4Ý3.3. In the ’90s this drop continued and some, like Indonesia, are
nearing ZPG (zero population growth).
But cities seem so overcrowded.
Over-concentration is a problem in many places, but, overall, the
world is not overpopulated.
But what about enough food?
Back when Paul Ehrlich wrote Population Bomb, this
was a real concern. Since then, world food production has grown much more rapidly than
numbers of people, e.g., India now exports food. For example, the International Rice
Research Institute in October ’94 announced a breakthrough in unveiling a new
"super rice" capable of boosting world rice production by 25%, with a further
boost in another decade of 25% more. New York Times
& Gannett, 10/24/94
"Today India can not only feed its own growing
population but also is emerging as a major food exporter. . . India will have an advantage
in any product that is harvested by hand." Forbes
Mag., May 23, 1994, p. 136
"New breeds of corn, developed to
withstand droughts and acidic tropical soil are being tested. The World Bank predicts
that, within 10 years, corn production will increase 40%, rivaling the green revolution in
Third World wheat and rice production." J. Nesmith, "New
Corn Strains May Feed Millions", Des Moines Register, June 24, 1994
World population rose from 3 billion in 1960 to 5.3 billion in 1960,
but food production grew even faster, outstripping population growth by 20%. The result
was a 60% drop in real prices for food commodities. This is the continuation of a trend in
prices that started over 100 years ago. Along with this, the incident of outright famine
has dropped ten-fold since the early 1960s, and caloric
intake per person has risen 25% worldwide in the same period. Far Eastern Economic Review, Nov. 16, 1995
China’s food output per person has increased by
more than 40% since 1979-81. The daily food supply now amounts to more than 2,700 calories
per capita. The food problems, and even starvation, which occurred in the past were the
result of government policies which taxed farmers in order to subsidize industry,
controlled and requisitioned output, drafted farmers to work on poorly planned government
projects, restricted agricultural trade and shipping, and prevented farmers from acquiring
the land and other resources needed to produce food. The government is gradually reforming
these policies and food output is increasing greatly. J.
Kasun, "China: Not Enough Food or Space," Human Concern, Spring 1996, p.
3
But can this continue?
Sadly, the world’s media seems obsessed with telling only scare
stories and suppressing all the good news about food. The definitive answer has
been a report in 1994 entitled "How Much Land Can Ten Billion People Spare for
Nature." This is a thoroughly documented, 63-page analysis. It was written by a
consortium of 30 major national agricultural societies in the U.S. It was published with
the cooperation of the Rockefeller Foundation.
In essence, it details how, even with a doubling of the present
earth’s population to 10 billion people, better use of currently farmed land can
still feed everyone.
While — get this — at the same time
returning as much as 10% of current crop land to nature rather than plowing under new
virgin areas. Council for Agriculture Science &
Technology, "How Much Land Can Ten Billion People Spare for Nature," $15.00,
4420 Lincoln Way, Ames, Iowa 50014.
But doesn’t the U.S. use up a high percentage of the
world’s natural resources?
It is a fact that there are more such resources available today than
there were a decade or two ago. In America one farmer feeds 99 other people. In some
countries, one farmer cannot even feed his own family. What is our solution? Should we
encourage American farmers and industrial workers to kill their own pre-born children or
should we stay strong, have children, and help to teach those other farmers and workers to
be more productive?
The U.S. pollutes also?
Actually, the more developed a free nation becomes, the less it
pollutes. A good contrast is the U.S. compared to the USSR’s profligate destruction
of, and pollution of, its natural resources.
How can a third world country reduce its birth rate?
Coercive abortion and sterilization are short term measures that
cause untold human misery and really don’t work well. Further, people resist these
measures. The only measures that have worked have been to raise that group’s standard
of living, to reduce infant and childhood mortality, and to raise expectation of (and
provide opportunity for) education. If these changes are accomplished, people will then voluntarily
limit the number of their children for two reasons: (a) they want more for each
child, and (b) they can reasonable expect their children to survive to adulthood
and be alive to care for them in their old age.
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