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WHY CAN'T WE LOVE THEM BOTH
by Dr. and Mrs. J.C. Willke
CHAPTER 39
POLLS
The polls giveth information
The polls taketh away information,
Blessed (cursed) be the polls.
The polls can give information?
They certainly can, but there are many ifs.
They can mislead?
Sure — it happens all the time.
Where do we start?
The most important thing to say about polls is:
- Ignore the headlines and the lead TV comment.
- Go to the question asked.
- Examine the wording of the question.
- Only then decide if it has information useful to you.
How does one evaluate a poll then?
Let’s look at this. Since there is literally a new poll out
every week, we use the following only as examples to demonstrate how you should evaluate
them. A book like this obviously cannot keep you up-to-date on polling results.
THINGS TO WATCH FOR
The Words Used
If the wording speaks of "woman’s rights," or her
"choice", the majority will answer pro-abortion. If the poll asks about rights
of the unborn, a strong majority will answer pro-life.
When "doctor," or "and her physician," or
"medical reasons," or "medical decision" is used, pro-abortion answers
are almost guaranteed. The same for "health." But if "abortionist" is
used, or if for "social or economic" reasons is used, then a large majority will
answer pro-life. "Terminate her pregnancy" brings a strong pro-abortion answer.
Conclusion: Read the question carefully. Is the deck stacked going
in?
Give examples of "stacked" questions.
A classic example of leading the respondent by loading the question
was a poll done for the National Abortion Rights Action League. "The decision on
whether or not to perform an abortion rests with the consenting patient, and should be
performed by a licensed physician in conformance with good medical practice."
Results? Not surprisingly, more than 90% agreed. Market Opinion Research, 1981, Bailey and Deardourff
Note the woman’s right to decide, that
she is a "patient" of a "licensed physician" who uses "good
medical practice." Who wouldn’t feel impelled to agree?
The same question with different wording can bring very different
results.
- Here is an example of two questions asked of the same people in
the same poll: In general, do you think a woman should have the right to choose to have an
abortion? Yes - 67% No - 29%
In general, do you think the lives of unborn babies should be
protected?
Yes - 69% No - 19% Note that 37% of these
respondents said yes to both questions. National
Werthin poll, Oct. ‘89
Now read this one, also asked of the same people in the same poll.
Would you favor or oppose a constitutional
amendment which would guarantee a woman’s right to have an abortion?
Favor 53%
Oppose 41%
Don’t know 6%
Would you favor or oppose a constitutional amendment which would
guarantee a woman’s right to make a choice to have an abortion?
Favor 63%
Oppose 32%
Don’t know 3%
Note that merely adding
"to make a choice" to the wording added 10% to the approval. Boston Globe Poll, Dec. 17, 1989
Who is asked the question?
You will get a different answer from the readership of Ms. magazine
than from the readership of St. Anthony’s Messenger. That is obvious. What is
less obvious is that truly professional polling must ask a valid cross section to be
accurate.
What does the person know who is asked about the issue?
Some questions have asked if the person agrees with the U.S. Supreme
Court Decision on abortion, when, in fact, only a tiny fraction have a reasonably accurate
grasp of what it decreed. The same is true of a constitutional amendment. What do the
respondents know about such an amendment? Which amendment?
Is the question factually accurate?
A frequently used question states: "The Supreme Court has
legalized abortion in the first three months of pregnancy. Do you agree?" As our
readers know, that statement is flatly false, yet it has been used for years. In the next
questions, the factual error about abortion only in the first three months disqualifies
the results, but note also that even subtle differences in wordings bring different
results.
1. "The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that a woman may go to a
doctor to end a pregnancy at any time during the first three months of pregnancy. Do you
favor or oppose this ruling?"
Results: Favor - 47%; Oppose - 44% Gallup poll conducted March 1974 The Gallup Opinion Index, Report
106, April 1974
2. "The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that a woman may go to a
doctor for an abortion at any time during the first three months of pregnancy. Do you
favor or oppose this ruling?"
Results: Favor - 43%; Oppose - 54% Sindlinger, "Special Hitchhiker on Abortion," for National Review, May 1974 324
The change from "to end a
pregnancy" to "for an abortion" changed the results. How much more of a
change would there be if "abortionist" were used instead of "doctor";
if the true nine months were stated instead of the incorrect "three months"; or
if "to kill her developing baby" were used?
In tracking polls before the 1984 referendum in Colorado on abortion
funding, a change from "public funding" to "your tax dollars" added 9%
more to those who opposed such funding.
Does the poll contain the Life-of-the-Mother exception?
A New York Times-CBS poll asked the same question with and
without the exception and found a 15% change in results.
"There is a proposal for a Constitutional Amendment that would
make all abortions illegal." Results: Favor - 28%; Oppose - 63%; Don’t know/no
answer - 9%
"There is another proposal for a Constitutional
Amendment that would allow an abortion only in order to save the life of the mother. All
other abortions would be illegal." Results: Favor - 43%; Oppose - 48% Results:
Don’t know/no answer - 9% New York Times, Oct.
14, 1984, p. E3
Is the question multi-issue?
Does the question mix abortion and contraception? The respondent may
well favor one and oppose the other. Is the question placed in context with other
loaded questions? Or does it stand by itself so that it can be
answered on its own merits?
Is the question too general?
"Do you feel that abortion should be: (a) legal
under all circumstances, (b) only under certain circumstances, or (c) illegal under all
circumstances?" Gallup Poll/National, asked
annually since 1975
If read carefully and with thought, the only people in "C"
would be those who would not even allow abortion to prevent the mother’s death, and
the only ones in "A" would be those who even approve sex-selection abortions in
the third trimester of pregnancy. A broad, general answer is often rendered invalid (as
the next two questions show), when specific details are probed.
1. "As you may have heard, in the last few
years a number of states have liberalized their abortion laws. To what extent do you agree
or disagree with the following statement regarding abortion: The decision to have an
abortion should be made solely by a woman and her physician?" Results: Agree - 64%;
Disagree - 31% Commissioned by Planned
Parenthood and asked in a Gallup poll. The Gallup Opinion Index, Report 87, Sept.
2.
"Do you think it should be lawful for a woman
to be able to get an abortion without her husband’s con-sent?" Results: Yes -
24%; No - 67% Commissioned by Blake and asked in
a Gallup poll two months after Question 1 above.
(1973) Note also the
slanting of the first question: "made solely by a woman and her physician." This
guarantees a pro-abortion answer.
Isn’t there some legitimate way to find out public opinion on
abortion?
Yes, there is. The question should simply ask for what reasons
should abortion be permitted (or legal)? Several major pro-abortion news media did just
this at about the same time and the results were almost identical.
Combined Opinion Polls ABORTION APPROVAL
Life/Health of Mother . . . . . . . . 90%
Rape/Incest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75%
Fetal Handicap . . . . . . . . . . . . 65%
Can’t Afford . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . 40%
Too Many Children. . . . . . . . . . 40%
Emotional Strain. . . . . . . . . . . 35%
To Finish School. . . . . . . . . . . . 28%
Not Married . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25%
As Birth Control . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%
Sex Selection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Note that the reasons approved of by a majority
constitute only 1-2% of all abortions done, while those disapproved constituted over 98%
of all abortions done. Boston Globe, Mar. 31,
‘89; N.Y. Times, Jan 22, ‘89 Los Angeles Times, Mar. 19, ‘89 and Newsweek
Apr. 24, ‘89.
These are all older polls. Are they still valid, or has public
opinion changed?
There has been surprisingly little change. About 25% of the public
is firmly in the pro-life camp. About 25% call themselves pro-choice, but only a few favor
abortion for the extremes such as for viable babies and sex selection. The middle 50%
increasingly admit this to be a human life, but most, in an uneasy, conflicted manner,
would allow "a woman’s right to choose."
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